Hypersonic Weapons: Overhyped or Superweapons? – threats, challenges & has the USA fallen behind?
Besides atomic ordnance, perhaps no weapon system commands public and media attention like hypersonics. No other weapon, when used in Ukraine, is basically guaranteed to command a news cycle.
And yet their importance is hotly debated. There are those who argue the US has fallen behind in an absolutely critical field of military technology - and likewise others who argue the entire class of systems represent an overhyped waste of money.
In this episode I try and provide at least an introduction to that multi-billion dollar question...
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats and corrections:
All usual caveats with an additional note that we're talking about ongoing, often deeply classified programs, so information quality is notably spotty
Sources & Reading:
Congressional Budget Office on Hypersonics:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58255
CRS on hypersonic weapons:
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf
CRS on Hypersonic Defence:
https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23588919/hypersonic-missile-defense-issues-for-congress-jan-24-2023.pdf
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs:
https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/01/27/chinas-hypersonic-weapons/
RT on Avangard:
https://www.rt.com/news/476985-avangard-deployement-arms-race/
ARRW cancellation:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/air-force-pulls-plug-on-much-hyped-hypersonic-missile
2022 Missile defence Review
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF
TASS on Killjoy range:
https://tass.com/defense/1013794
Putin says Russia leading hypersonics
https://apnews.com/article/vladimir-putin-ap-top-news-international-news-technology-russia-d4e05956217d895594bcef491083e950
Missile Defence Project listing the range:
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/kinzhal/
Raytheon Glide-Phase-Interceptor
https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/news/2022/11/16/rmd-builds-on-its-standard-missile-legacy-as-it-designs-glide-phase-interceptor
Fars News on IRGC missile claim:
https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14011206000134/IRGC-Aerspace-Cmmander-Iran%27s-Hypersnic-Ballisic-Missile-Mves-a-Machv
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on Hypersonics:
https://thebulletin.org/2020/01/hypersonic-missiles-new-arms-race-going-nowhere-fast/
CSIS - Complex air defence
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220207_Karako_Complex_AirDefense.pdf?VersionId=SmaHq1sva9Sk.TSlzpXqWY72fg8PdLvA
Northrop Grumman HBTSS
https://www.northropgrumman.com/wp-content/uploads/HBTSS-Data-Sheet.pdf
Lora Saalman Ph.D - PROMPT GLOBAL STRIKE:
CHINA AND THE SPEAR
https://dkiapcss.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2014/04/APCSS_Saalman_PGS_China_Apr2014.pdf
Phoenix Testbed project:
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/history/pastprojects/Phoenix/phoenixmissile.html
Media saying the US is behind on hypersonics:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davedeptula/2018/10/05/faster-than-a-speeding-bullet/?sh=604de3395ca6
CSIS - Chinese FOBS capability
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis//2021/10/is-china-gliding-toward-a-fobs-capability
Alan Cummings - Hypersonic weapons tactical uses and goals
https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/hypersonic-weapons-tactical-uses-and-strategic-goals/
Reporting on cost of CPS rounds:
https://defensescoop.com/2023/03/22/navy-plans-to-spend-more-than-50m-per-round-on-average-for-cps-hypersonic-missiles-over-next-5-years/
S-500 Reporting:
https://www.janes.com/amp/russia-begins-series-production-of-s-500-air-defence-system/ZnlJK3dHVU9mZ28xajRJVkc5dVI5VFp1cVMwPQ2
Reporting on HALO:
https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/sea-air-space-2023/2023/03/us-navy-moves-forward-with-halo-hypersonic-carrier-based-weapon/
https://defensescoop.com/2023/04/03/navys-future-halo-hypersonic-missile-might-not-actually-be-hypersonic/
CPS Reporting:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/03/23/us-navy-conventional-prompt-strike/
https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/sna-2023/2023/01/us-navy-sets-out-capability-imperatives-for-ddgx/
Russian media on Sarmat:
https://sputnikglobe.com/20220522/russias-sarmat-icbm-can-change-trajectory-interception-hardly-possible-in-coming-decades-1095694819.html
PRC team claim reliable communications with Hypersonic object:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3190695/chinese-team-claims-highly-reliable-communications-during
DOT&E Report 2022
https://www.dote.osd.mil/Portals/97/pub/reports/FY2022/FY22DOTEAnnualReport.pdf?ver=UBO7t2O1FkRuvrB-nJDZ-g%3d%3d
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Hypersonic Weapons
00:01:24 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:33 — What Are They?
00:11:44 — Advantages & Defensive Challenges
00:19:26 — The Problems & Costs (Technical)
00:28:08 — The Problems & Costs (Mission)
00:38:01 — Defensive Options
00:45:15 — National Programs: Russia
00:55:06 — National Programs: PRC
00:58:43 — National Programs: USA
01:06:07 — The State of Competition
01:10:45 — Conclusions
01:11:51 — Channel Update
Besides atomic ordnance, perhaps no weapon system commands public and media attention like hypersonics. No other weapon, when used in Ukraine, is basically guaranteed to command a news cycle.
And yet their importance is hotly debated. There are those who argue the US has fallen behind in an absolutely critical field of military technology – and likewise others who argue the entire class of systems represent an overhyped waste of money.
In this episode I try and provide at least an introduction to that multi-billion dollar question…
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats and corrections:
All usual caveats with an additional note that we’re talking about ongoing, often deeply classified programs, so information quality is notably spotty
Sources & Reading:
Congressional Budget Office on Hypersonics:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58255
CRS on hypersonic weapons:
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf
CRS on Hypersonic Defence:
https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23588919/hypersonic-missile-defense-issues-for-congress-jan-24-2023.pdf
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs:
https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/01/27/chinas-hypersonic-weapons/
RT on Avangard:
https://www.rt.com/news/476985-avangard-deployement-arms-race/
ARRW cancellation:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/air-force-pulls-plug-on-much-hyped-hypersonic-missile
2022 Missile defence Review
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF
TASS on Killjoy range:
https://tass.com/defense/1013794
Putin says Russia leading hypersonics
https://apnews.com/article/vladimir-putin-ap-top-news-international-news-technology-russia-d4e05956217d895594bcef491083e950
Missile Defence Project listing the range:
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/kinzhal/
Raytheon Glide-Phase-Interceptor
https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/news/2022/11/16/rmd-builds-on-its-standard-missile-legacy-as-it-designs-glide-phase-interceptor
Fars News on IRGC missile claim:
https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14011206000134/IRGC-Aerspace-Cmmander-Iran%27s-Hypersnic-Ballisic-Missile-Mves-a-Machv
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on Hypersonics:
https://thebulletin.org/2020/01/hypersonic-missiles-new-arms-race-going-nowhere-fast/
CSIS – Complex air defence
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220207_Karako_Complex_AirDefense.pdf?VersionId=SmaHq1sva9Sk.TSlzpXqWY72fg8PdLvA
Northrop Grumman HBTSS
https://www.northropgrumman.com/wp-content/uploads/HBTSS-Data-Sheet.pdf
Lora Saalman Ph.D – PROMPT GLOBAL STRIKE:
CHINA AND THE SPEAR
https://dkiapcss.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2014/04/APCSS_Saalman_PGS_China_Apr2014.pdf
Phoenix Testbed project:
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/history/pastprojects/Phoenix/phoenixmissile.html
Media saying the US is behind on hypersonics:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davedeptula/2018/10/05/faster-than-a-speeding-bullet/?sh=604de3395ca6
CSIS – Chinese FOBS capability
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis//2021/10/is-china-gliding-toward-a-fobs-capability
Alan Cummings – Hypersonic weapons tactical uses and goals
https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/hypersonic-weapons-tactical-uses-and-strategic-goals/
Reporting on cost of CPS rounds:
https://defensescoop.com/2023/03/22/navy-plans-to-spend-more-than-50m-per-round-on-average-for-cps-hypersonic-missiles-over-next-5-years/
S-500 Reporting:
https://www.janes.com/amp/russia-begins-series-production-of-s-500-air-defence-system/ZnlJK3dHVU9mZ28xajRJVkc5dVI5VFp1cVMwPQ2
Reporting on HALO:
https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/sea-air-space-2023/2023/03/us-navy-moves-forward-with-halo-hypersonic-carrier-based-weapon/
https://defensescoop.com/2023/04/03/navys-future-halo-hypersonic-missile-might-not-actually-be-hypersonic/
CPS Reporting:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/03/23/us-navy-conventional-prompt-strike/
https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/sna-2023/2023/01/us-navy-sets-out-capability-imperatives-for-ddgx/
Russian media on Sarmat:
https://sputnikglobe.com/20220522/russias-sarmat-icbm-can-change-trajectory-interception-hardly-possible-in-coming-decades-1095694819.html
PRC team claim reliable communications with Hypersonic object:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3190695/chinese-team-claims-highly-reliable-communications-during
DOT&E Report 2022
https://www.dote.osd.mil/Portals/97/pub/reports/FY2022/FY22DOTEAnnualReport.pdf?ver=UBO7t2O1FkRuvrB-nJDZ-g%3d%3d
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Hypersonic Weapons
00:01:24 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:33 — What Are They?
00:11:44 — Advantages & Defensive Challenges
00:19:26 — The Problems & Costs (Technical)
00:28:08 — The Problems & Costs (Mission)
00:38:01 — Defensive Options
00:45:15 — National Programs: Russia
00:55:06 — National Programs: PRC
00:58:43 — National Programs: USA
01:06:07 — The State of Competition
01:10:45 — Conclusions
01:11:51 — Channel Update
